Wikileaks explosive cables could spice Cameroon Oct. 9 election

Wikileaks release last week of never before seen unredacted cache of explosive U.S diplomatic cables on Cameroon and Biya's regime could potentially spice Cameroon's October 9 presidential election.

The cables confirms some suspicions Cameroonians have been having on how the country has been governed for nearly three decades by Biya.  They provide an interesting insight into the sad state of Cameroon politics. Examples such as how and why Biya orchestrated the constitutional tweak in 2008 to remove presidential term limits and jostling by potential successors, are detailed in the cables.

Biya meeting U.S. Ambassador Garvey  Source: Cameroononline

A cursory read of the documents could be an emotional roller-coaster for Cameroonians who normally know little or nothing about what is going on in the corridors of power. From sadness and shame on how a misguided group led by an even clueless individual have manage to highjack the destiny of a nation, precipitating it towards an inevitable catastrophic outcome, to sheer incredulity and disgust at the arrogance of some the utterances by top barons of the regime as recorded by U.S. diplomats.

One of the cables succinctly summarised what is wrong in and with Cameroon in a report of the Cameroon government's handling of the Kenyan Airways crash in May 2007 that killed 114.

The cabel, marked confidential and titled  "Keyan Air Crash puts Cameroon's governance problems in stark relief" said:

 "Although the event (the plane crash) would have challenged even a capable government, Cameroon's response was hampered by many of the same factors that impede progress on development and reforms: an aversion to public communication, a stifling regard for hierarchy and protocol, a crippling regard for style over substance, and an inability to react to events in a timely manner.  For the few days when the world's attention was focused on Cameroon, the Government was left looking lost, uncaring, and incompetent," it said.

Under a subheading, Who is in charge? the cable said:

"The GRC's (Government of the Republic of Cameroon) efforts were further crippled before they began by the lack of an effective government spokesperson and the complete absence of the Minister of Transportation."

"President Biya, off in his village, was entirely absent from the public eye (and, as far as we can tell, from internal deliberations as well) for the duration of the crisis and he never made any public statement of condolence (though he did call a day or mourning two weeks later).  Biya's silence appeared even worse as he did find time to congratulate the French and Nigerian presidents-elect."

Prime Minister Inoni wearily recounted having left numerous unanswered messages on Dakole's  (Transport Minister Dakole Diassala) voice mail over the 10 days since the crash informing him of the plane crash and the need for his presence. Given his incompetence, it is unlikely that Dakole's presence would have helped as all levels of the GRC appeared unable to adapt its strict hierarchical style to allow for the necessary decentralized, rapid decision-making for a proper response.  Nonetheless, his evident absence only served to highlight his irrelevance and had Cameroonians -- not to mention foreigners -- openly asking what purpose he serves.

It concluded: The GRC's handling of the Kenya Airways crash is a metaphor for the problems that plague Cameroon's governance more generally and stymie even the best efforts for reform. Even observers steeped in the peccadilloes of African governments professed incredulity at what they perceived to be the GRC's complete disinterest and incompetence in the face of a terrible and enduring disaster.  The characteristics that manifested themselves so starkly in this episode -- an inwardly focused ruling elite, a President who takes all key decisions despite being out of touch, excessive deference to hierarchy and protocol, no sense of urgency.

Perhaps, the cable with a potential to be explosive especially within the ruling CPDM party ahead of the October election and the jockeying to succeed Biya, is the one recounting Vice-Prime Minister Amadou Ali, a northern baron of the regime's candid but frightening admission to the U.S. ambassador what the northerners would do post-Biya. 

Cameroon's Justice Minister says north will support Biya, but not another Beti or Bami.

Vice PM Amadou Ali

"The struggle for Cameroon's future, including President Paul Biya's succession, should be viewed through ethnic and regional lenses, according to Amadou Ali, 

Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Justice.  In a recent, wide-ranging and frank discussion with the Ambassador, Ali said the foundation of Cameroon's stability is the detente between Biya's Beti/Bulu ethnic group, which predominates in Cameroon's South Region, and the populations of Cameroon's three Northern Regions, known as the Septentrion, which are ethnically and culturally distinct from the rest of the 

country," the cable said.

Ali's view augurs a worrisome outlook for Cameroon, which so far has managed a semblance of peaceful cohesion. It is clear that post-Biya's Cameroon holds a lot of danger and could become the latest theatre of bloody succession conflict just like many others that have mired other post-independent African nations.